978
AXPZ20 KNHC 040224
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0215 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE GALE WARNING: THE REMNANT LOW OF
OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.5N113W,
WITH A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED NE OF THE
CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW, WITH SEAS PEAKING NEAR 12 FT. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT WEBSITE HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE, IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM LATER THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS ITS AXIS NEAR 98W FROM 03N NORTHWARD.
NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N86W TO 09N94W TO 11N108W TO
08N130W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N
BETWEEN 80W AND 95W, AND FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 95W AND 117W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS
ON A GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE, AND
ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.
ASIDE FROM THE GALE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED TO POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE FLOSSIE, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND SEAS OF 7-8 FT, ARE
NOTED S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 4-5 FT, ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-7 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLOSSIE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY SAT, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE OFF OAXACA AND GUERRERO AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO
FORM OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO. GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH FRI AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO LARGE
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH
THE WATERS SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS STARTING FRI.
ELSEWHERE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTHERLY SWELL ARE EXPECTED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE WINDS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND W OF 110W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. S OF
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS
ARE IN THE 6-7 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS.
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WIL BRING SEAS OF 8 FT OVER THE WATERS
SOUTH OF ABOUT 01N BETWEEN 102W AND 115W STARTING LATER TONIGHT,
WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH SAT. EXPECT FOR INCREASING WINDS AND
SEAS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THESE WATERS.
AL
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