398  
WTNT43 KNHC 042035  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025  
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025  
 
THE WIND CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF  
THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA HAS BECOME STRONGER, WITH AIRCRAFT AND  
SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH  
MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND OF ABOUT  
80-90 N MI. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CONVECTION EAST  
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DEVELOPMENTS,  
ADVISORIES ARE BEING STARTED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. THE  
CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY  
SHEAR CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOT FAR TO THE WEST.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF THE  
CENTER, WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 360/2 KT. DURING THE NEXT 24 H,  
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE NORTHEAST  
SIDE OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
GULF. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD WITH  
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE  
CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. A  
GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM  
DISSIPATES OVER LAND. WHILE THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS  
SCENARIO, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE FORECAST  
DIRECTION AND SPEED, WITH THE HWRF BEING A NOTABLE RIGHT OUTLIER.  
THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE HCCA  
CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.  
 
THE CURRENT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE  
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE AND THE  
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS  
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME CONVERGENT, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF  
CONVECTION THE SYSTEM PRODUCES. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME  
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST, SO THE INTENSITY  
FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE  
THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE  
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA  
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL CAUSE SOME FLASH  
FLOODING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH  
FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITHIN MORE URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS.  
 
3. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO  
MUCH OF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 04/2100Z 30.8N 79.0W 30 KT 35 MPH  
12H 05/0600Z 31.3N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH  
24H 05/1800Z 31.7N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH  
36H 06/0600Z 32.4N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH  
48H 06/1800Z 33.7N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
60H 07/0600Z 35.0N 79.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED  
 

 
FORECASTER BEVEN  
 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TPC Page Main Text Page