404
AXPZ20 KNHC 042201
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE, IS CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ANALYZED ALONG 86.5W, FROM THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTHWARD TO 05N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 15 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 95W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 103W, FROM 09N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST AROUND 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
13N103W IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS THE MONSOON
TROUGH. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON THIS
FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 12N TO
17N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N106W TO 08N124W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N124W TO BEYOND 07N140W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 08N WEST
OF 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WATERS, CENTERED AROUND 350 NM WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED FRESH WINDS PREVAIL TO
THE EAST, NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER, WITH A LOCALIZED AREA OF
STRONG WINDS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SEAS OF 8 TO 9
FT ARE OCCURRING NEAR THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE, TROUGHING HAS BEEN
ANALYZED ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING FRESH S TO SE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, AS SEEN ON SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHERWISE, FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO, NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS TODAY, PRODUCING
MAINLY FRESH WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS SOUTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY EARLY SAT. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH S TO SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
OCCUR OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS A
TROPICAL WAVE, AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE E WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO,
SUPPORTED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. GENTLE TO
LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE NORTH OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. TO THE SOUTH, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
WERE NOTED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA. SEAS OF 5 TO
7 FT IN S TO SW SWELL PREVAIL OVER THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH AMERICA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. OTHERWISE, SOUTH OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH S TO SW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE REGIONAL WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ, ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED
NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 32N138W. MODERATE NE WINDS WERE NOTED IN
THIS REGION ON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA. RESIDUAL ROUGH SEAS IN
MIXED N AND E SWELL, IN PART INDUCED BY SWELLS FROM THE REMNANT
LOW OF FLOSSIE, ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AND ITCZ, A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE SWELL IS LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
SOUTH OF 05N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS PREVAIL IN THIS AREA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-
CENTRAL WATERS, NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, WILL SUBSIDE
THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ROUGH SEAS IN S TO SW
SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SAT MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL OCCUR OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE, AND
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE, MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL
OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
ADAMS
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