358
WTNT43 KNHC 050235
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2025
THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING,
WITH A SEEMINGLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THIS STRUCTURE IS DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR, WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPARENT EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT, CONSISTENT WITH
DATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION AND SATELLITE
TRENDS.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY RECENTLY, BUT A LONGER TERM
MOTION IS BASICALLY STATIONARY. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED ON
THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION
SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
SUNDAY MORNING. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED TO THE EAST,
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR SHOULD
LESSEN ON SATURDAY, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THERE IS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT, HOWEVER, WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS THE CURRENT DISHEVELED
STRUCTURE. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST STRENGTHENING
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST, AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT, NEAR THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE BETWEEN SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
WITHIN MORE URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
CAROLINAS.
3. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ROUGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS TO
MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES NORTH OF NORTHEASTERN
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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