230  
AXPZ20 KNHC 050239  
TWDEP  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
0405 UTC SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND  
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING  
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,  
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.  
 
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH  
0200 UTC.  
   
..SPECIAL FEATURES  
 
 
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO:  
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS  
CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT  
FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE  
THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-  
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM  
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH  
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST  
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE  
DETAILS.  
   
..TROPICAL WAVES  
 
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD,  
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE  
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.  
 
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 104W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD,  
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED  
NEAR 13.5N104W IS NOTED WHERE THE WAVE AXIS INTERSECTS THE  
MONSOON TROUGH. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON  
THIS FEATURE. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON  
TROUGH SECTION BELOW.  
   
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH  
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 13N104W TO 08N120W.  
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N120W TO BEYOND 06N140W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N  
E OF 93W, AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 99W AND 111W. SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN 132W AND  
140W.  
   
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO  
 
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE  
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF  
SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA  
SUR WATERS, CENTERED NEAR 24N117W. MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6  
TO 8 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND  
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF A TROPICAL WAVE  
AND LOW PRESSURE DISCUSSED ABOVE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND  
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE  
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE WILL MOVE  
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WATERS TONIGHT,  
PRODUCING MAINLY MODERATE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS.  
THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE SAT, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING.  
ELSEWHERE, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE  
COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS  
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION  
IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS  
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO  
DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  
 
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,  
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...  
 
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH  
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE  
5-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS  
ARE REACHING 7 FT.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF  
PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS  
IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.  
   
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA  
 
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, AND LOWER PRESSURE  
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING GENTLE TO MODERATE  
WINDS N OF THE ITCZ. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL N OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED S OF THE  
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE.  
 
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH  
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUGH SEAS  
IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL WATERS, NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W,  
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, ROUGH  
SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SAT MORNING. FRESH  
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE  
WATERS E OF 120W THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE, AND ASSOCIATED  
LOW PRESSURE, MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE  
COAST OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR  
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
 
AL  
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