237
AXPZ20 KNHC 050851
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 5 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC:
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 88W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 105W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN
THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N100W TO 13N105W TO
07N121W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N121W TO BEYOND 06N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
03N TO 10N E OF 93W, AND FROM 07N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN
134W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WATERS, CENTERED NEAR 24N117W. MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THIS SYSTEM. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE NEAR 24N117W WILL
MOVE WEST OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MODERATE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW OF
THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS
IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE DISCUSSION
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH- CENTRAL WATERS, NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W, WILL CONTINUE TODAY. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS E OF
120W THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR
MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AL
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