788  
WTNT43 KNHC 051455  
TCDAT3  
 
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025  
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025  
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CHANTAL HAS BEEN ORGANIZING AND  
GAINING STRENGTH. THE STORM IS STILL ASYMMETRIC THOUGH, WITH MOST  
OF THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE  
EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY  
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM AND HAVE FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS  
DROPPED TO 1007 MB. THE PLANE HAS YET TO SAMPLE THE AREA OF STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING. THE  
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR NOW. THE OUTER RAINBANDS ARE  
BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA, AND  
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
 
CHANTAL HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE LAST NIGHT, BUT A MOTION TO THE  
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. THE MAIN STEERING  
FEATURES APPEAR TO BE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF AND A  
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE FLOW  
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE CHANTAL TO MOVE INLAND OVER  
SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CENTER  
REFORMATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ERRATIC MOTION.  
AFTER LANDFALL, A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WHEN THE STORM  
MOVES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES  
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND THE LATEST HCCA AND GOOGLE DEEP MIND  
SOLUTIONS.  
 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS CHANTAL  
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND MOVE INTO A LOWER WIND  
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION, THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO  
SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY, WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR  
STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN  
THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HMON, HAFS-A, AND  
HAFS-B GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL, STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL  
THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN 48 TO 60 HOURS.  
 
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LOPSIDED SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY  
OR SO. THEREFORE, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR TO  
THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.  
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA  
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS WILL CAUSE SOME FLASH  
FLOODING THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING COULD  
OCCUR WITHIN MORE URBANIZED AREAS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE  
CAROLINAS.  
 
3. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP  
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE  
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEACH GOERS  
SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS  
 
INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH  
12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH  
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND  
36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND  
48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND  
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED  
 
 
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KONARIK  
 
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