289
AXPZ20 KNHC 051554
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO. THE OBSERVED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE OF THE
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY COVERING THE
AREA FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE
DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 89W, FROM 04N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 105W/106W NORTH OF
03N NORTHWARD, MOVING WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE
OF 1010 MB IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. PLEASE SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 09N95W TO 15N106W
TO 09N121W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N121W TO 07N130W AND
TO BEYOND 07140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W, AND
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 109W-114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WATERS, CENTERED NEAR 24N118W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1013 MB.
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THIS
SYSTEM PER LATEST ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. MODERATE TO FRESH
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT, PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE NEAR 24N118W WILL
SOON MOVE WEST OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE TODAY. MODERATE WINDS
AND ROUGH SEAS OVER THESE WATERS WILL DECREASE TODAY. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE EXPECTED
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THIS WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS
IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS, NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN
120W AND 130W, WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. FRESH TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS E OF 120W DURING THIS WEEKEND AS A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH A
POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AGUIRRE
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