398
WTNT43 KNHC 052033
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CONCENTRATED AREA
OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
STORM. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT
INVESTIGATED CHANTAL THROUGH MIDDAY FOUND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 51 KT WHICH SUPPORTED THE INCREASE IN WINDS TO 40 KT ON THE
1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRUCTURE SINCE THAT TIME, THE INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS EVENING.
THE MODERATE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING, HOWEVER DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR APPEARS TO
BE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED BEFORE CHANTAL
REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
AFTER LANDFALL, STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY MONDAY.
RECENT FIXES SHOW THAT CHANTAL HAS BEGUN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/6. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL TURN NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF
AND A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AS CHANTAL BECOMES MORE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASYMMETRIC WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
3. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEACH GOERS
SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BROWN
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