238
AXPZ20 KNHC 052054
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2045 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE OBSERVED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE OF THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TYPE INTENSITY
COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 102W AND 110W. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 90W, FROM 07N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS SEEN WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 05N TO 10N.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 106W FROM 10N TO 20N,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N98W. IT RESUMES
FROM THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 15N106W SOUTHWESTWARD TO
09N121W, WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 07N127W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
SEEN FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 78W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 09N BETWEEN
78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 09N
BETWEEN 90W AND 95W, ALSO WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
109W-114W AND BETWEEN 117W-118W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE REMNANT LOW OF FLOSSIE IS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR WATERS, CENTERED NEAR 24N119W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1013 MB.
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED NEAR THE LOW.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED SOUTH
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5 TO 6 FT,
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE
WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS, N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W
AND 130W, WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER PULSE OF MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS FROM LONG-PERIOD N SWELL ON SUN, THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS E OF 120W ON SUN AS A TROPICAL
WAVE, WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AGUIRRE
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