205
AXPZ20 KNHC 060200
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES
GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. BY
EARLY TUESDAY, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATER,
ENDING ITS OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR
MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 91W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 107/108W FROM 05N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N94W TO 15N107.5W TO
09N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 11N TO 20N
BETWEEN 104W AND 115W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN FORECAST WATERS,
REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF SW MEXICO. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO...REACHING 8 FT OFF SW MEXICO.
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT
PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER
WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE
DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS, N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W
AND 130W, WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER PULSE OF MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS FROM LONG-PERIOD N SWELL ON SUN, THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS E OF 120W ON SUN AS A TROPICAL
WAVE, WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AL
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