183
WTNT43 KNHC 060249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2025
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF CHANTAL, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
BURST. THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN CAUSING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM, WITH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTING 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT,
WHICH EQUATE TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS DATA IS ALSO CLOSE
TO DERIVED VELOCITY RADAR DATA FROM WILMINGTON, SHOWING PEAK 8000 FT
WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT, AND TAFB'S LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF
45 KT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE
VALUES.
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/7, AND CHANTAL COULD TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER ON SUNDAY AS CHANTAL
BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE
WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS LITTLE TIME LEFT FOR ANY
INTENSIFICATION, AND CHANTAL SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 6
HOURS AT ABOUT THE PRESENT INTENSITY (45-50 KT). STEADY WEAKENING
WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL WITH THE LOSS OF THE WARM WATER HEAT
SOURCE, AND CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA BY EARLY MONDAY. THE TRACK FORECAST WAS NUDGED TO THE
EAST, WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASYMMETRIC WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
BEGINNING SOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.
3. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEACH GOERS
SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 32.7N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 33.6N 79.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 34.8N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page