480
AXPZ20 KNHC 060817
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 6 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0800 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 92, FROM 05N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 108/109W FROM 05N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1011 MB IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE
FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 08N94W TO 15N108.5W TO
08N122W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 08N122W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 03N TO 10N E OF 97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N TO 20N
BETWEEN 104W AND 112W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN FORECAST WATERS W
OF 105W, REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF SW MEXICO. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO...REACHING 8 FT OFF SW
MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS, AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE OVER THE
WATERS E OF 105W. OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE WINDS AND
SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE
REST OF THIS WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY
WEST- NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE
NEXT WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT S AND SW
OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE STRENGTHENING
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGIONAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS N OF 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND N OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OF 6 TO 8
FT PREVAIL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO
ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS, N OF 25N BETWEEN 120W
AND 130W, WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MON. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS E OF
120W TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE, WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AL
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