471
WTNT43 KNHC 060848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025
500 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2025
BEFORE THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED CHANTAL THIS
MORNING, THEIR FINAL LEG OBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT
AND A DROPSONDE ESTIMATED PRESSURE DOWN TO 1002 MB. NEAR THE SAME
LOCATION AS THOSE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS, NWS DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES FROM WILMINGTON SHOWED PERSISTENT 65-70 KT INBOUND VALUES
AT 3-5 THOUSAND FEET. THESE DATA POINTS WERE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING CHANTAL'S WINDS TO 50 KT AT THE 06 UTC INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY. SINCE THAT TIME, THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL STORM ON
RADAR HAS DEGRADED AND THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE MADE LANDFALL NEAR LITCHFIELD BEACH, SOUTH
CAROLINA AT APPROXIMATELY 08 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY GIVEN THE DEGRADATION IN
APPEARANCE NOW JUST AFTER LANDFALL AND THE DECREASING DOPPLER RADIAL
VELOCITIES.
CHANTAL IS ESTIMATED TO NOW BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, AT 345/7
KT. A TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
END OF TODAY AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTWARD SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT EASTWARD, MOSTLY BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION, BUT FALLS IN LINE CLOSELY TO THE PRIOR FORECAST TRACK IN
24-36 H. WEAKENING HAS ALREADY STARTED AS CHANTAL MOVES INLAND.
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE FULL CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND, WITH
CHANTAL LIKELY WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.
THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE-REGIONAL MODELS THEN SHOW
THE CIRCULATION OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 36 H, THOUGH ITS
LIKELY CHANTAL'S REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ONWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER THIS TIME PERIOD.
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ASYMMETRIC WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2. HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
WILL CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
TODAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR WITHIN MORE URBANIZED AREAS.
3. CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEACH GOERS
SHOULD HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 33.6N 79.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 34.9N 79.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 36.3N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/1800Z 37.7N 76.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER PAPIN
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