010
AXPZ20 KNHC 061556
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1545 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY CONSISTS OF OF THE
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TYPE FROM 15 TO 16N
BETWEEN 108W AND 110W, AND OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TYPE FROM
17N TO 20N BETWEEN 107W AND 110W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER BY MON NIGHT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W NORTH OF 05N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE WAVE FROM 14N TO 16N.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 109W FROM 05N TO 20N. IT
IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15.5N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE FOR MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N84W TO 11N101W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 15.5N109W TO 09N120W. ITCZ FROM 09N120W TO 08N130W TO
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SEEN
WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 95W-100W, ALSO WITHIN
120 NM NORTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-129W AND WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE TROUGH BETWEEN 108W-110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 113W-116W, AND
WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 117W-120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE WESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN FORECAST WATERS W
OF 105W, REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF SW MEXICO. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE OVER THE WATERS E OF 105W. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH
SEAS ARE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AND A SHORT-LIVED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER BY MON NIGHT.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE
REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON, THEN BEGIN TO PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOONS THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS
DURING THE PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
OF 6 TO 8 FT PREVAIL OVER THE DISCUSSION WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS, NORTH OF
25N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W, WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO MON.
FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WATERS EAST OF ABOUT 120W TODAY AS A TROPICAL WAVE,
WITH A POSSIBLE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. PLEASE SEE ABOVE FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AGUIRRE
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