850
AXPZ20 KNHC 062159
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 06 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER,
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED.
THIS ACTIVITY CONSISTS OF THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TYPE FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. A 1605Z
METOP-B ASCAT SATELLITE DATA PASS SHOWS THE BROAD FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONSISTING OF MOSTLY FRESH
WINDS, WITH EMBEDDED WINDS OF STRONG SPEEDS. SEAS NEAR THIS
SYSTEM ARE 5 TO 7 FT, WITH POSSIBLE SEAS REACHING 8 FT AT TIMES.THIS
SYSTEM COULD STILL BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BEFORE IT MOVES INTO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON MON.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W NORTH OF 05N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 13N TO 16N.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 110W FROM 06N TO 20N. IT IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB IS ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
MORE ON THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N94W TO LOW PRESSURE
NEAR 08N100W 1011 MB AND TO 10N102W. IT RESUMES FROM THE 1010
MB LOW NEAR 16N110W TO 09N120W. THE ITCZ EXTEND FROM 09N120W TO
08N130W TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS SEEN WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN
99W-102W AND WITHIN 60 NM SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 118W-120W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN
137W-140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN FORECAST WATERS W
OF 105W, REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF SW MEXICO. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE OVER THE WATERS E OF 105W. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN
SECTION AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. SEAS ARE 1-3 FT OVER THE NORTHERN SECTION
AND 3 TO 4 FT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF, EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTER HIGHER SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL
AT THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
LATE THIS WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE
REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON, THEN BEGIN TO PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOONS THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT ARE OVER THE THAT PART OF THE AREA, WITH THE
EXCEPTIONS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE CONFINED TO
OVER THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 22N WEST OF
ABOUT 133W AND OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS FROM
21N TO 26N BETWEEN 124W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
NORTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED
TO WEST OF ABOUT 128W. WINDS AND SEAS OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS EAST OF 120W WILL MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGES DEPENDING
ON WHAT TRANSPIRES WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. PRESENTLY, WINDS EAST OF 120W ARE MOSTLY LIGHT TO
GENTLE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AROUND
THE SPECIAL FEATURES AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. SEAS EAST OF 120W ARE
5 TO 7 FT, MAYBE REACHING TO 8 FT AT TIMES NEAR THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE.
AGUIRRE
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