594
AXPZ20 KNHC 070203
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0200 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP96):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM COULD
STILL BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES
WESTWARD INTO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK AT WWWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 93W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE
ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 111W FROM 06N TO 20N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 KT. LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB IS ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 16N. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE ON
THIS FEATURE.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 10N102W TO 16N111W TO
09N120W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 09N120W TO 08N130W TO BEYOND
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 03N TO 12N BETWEEN 85W AND 105W, FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 105W AND 116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 106W AND 120W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR INFORMATION ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE OPEN FORECAST WATERS W
OF 105W, REACHING FRESH SPEEDS OFF SW MEXICO. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE
NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS,
AND SEAS OF 5-6 FT ARE OVER THE WATERS E OF 105W. OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE WATERS NEAR
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COULD FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 5 TO 6 FT RANGE, EXCEPT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS WHERE SEAS ARE
REACHING 7 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH MON, THEN BEGIN TO PULSE AT FRESH SPEEDS AT
NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOONS THROUGH WED. OTHERWISE,
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE
PERIOD.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
CORRECTED
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. MODERATE TO
FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND NORTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS OF
5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT JUST N
OF THE ITCZ AND W OF 130W AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
WATERS.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
MOVE INTO THE WATERS S OF 05N AND W OF 100W THE MIDDLE TO END OF
THE WEEK.
AL
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