709
AXPZ20 KNHC 071509
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 84W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
TO ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 10
KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS OVER THOSE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND ALSO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 94.5W NORTH OF 10N TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 112.5W FROM 11N TO 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE
AREA, INVEST EP93, IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 18N112.5W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N75.5W TO 10N102W TO 12N112W TO
08N123W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 84W AND
121W, FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 86W AND 106W, AND FROM 10.5N TO
14.5N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA, INVEST EP93, IS NEAR 18N112.5W.
ASSOCIATED WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE UP
TO 7 FT. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS W OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH
SE WINDS ARE PRESENT. SEAS ARE 3-5 FT, EXCEPT 2 FT OR LESS IN
THE NORTHERN GULF. SEAS OF 5-7 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
THEREAFTER WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF
THE COAST OF MEXICO WITH INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY SURGE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION, THROUGH THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS, AND MODERATE SEAS, WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH THEREAFTER.
A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA MAY BRING
A SURGE OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE PERIOD, BUILDING NEAR ROUGH
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8
FT. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL, ROUGH SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS S OF 05N AND W OF 100W BY THE MIDDLE TO
THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH N SWELL
ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
LEWITSKY
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