242
AXPZ20 KNHC 072058
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 7 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2000 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 86W FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
SEA TO ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS, NICARAGUA, AND WESTERN COSTA
RICA, MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS MAINLY
INLAND AND ALSO THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 95.5W NORTH OF 10N TO ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY
CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION
BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 113.5W FROM 10N TO 22N,
MOVING WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED
IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION BELOW. A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA, INVEST EP93, IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 18N113.5W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 10N95W TO 12N114W TO
08N123W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N123W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W,
FROM 06N TO 16N BETWEEN 96W AND 107W, AND FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
107W AND 120W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 09.5N TO 11N
BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A WEAKENING 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA, INVEST EP93, IS NEAR
18N113.5W. ASSOCIATED WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS ARE UP TO
6-7 FT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE OPEN WATERS.
SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE NOTED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF, MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE CENTRAL, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE IN THE SOUTHERN. SEAS ARE MAINLY 3-5 FT.
FOR THE FORECAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SEVERAL
HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATE THIS
WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AND WHILE SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE, IT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.
IF THE LOW DOES FORM, INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WINDS MAY SURGE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, EXCEPT PULSING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED ELSEWHERE N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE IN S TO SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS WILL PULSE LOCALLY IN
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH WED NIGHT, THEN MODERATE TO FRESH
THEREAFTER. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA MAY
BRING A SURGE OF AT LEAST FRESH WINDS OFFSHORE EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE. OTHERWISE, GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW SWELL WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE PERIOD, BUILDING NEAR ROUGH
SOUTH OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
BROAD PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS, EXCEPT
MODERATE TO FRESH IN THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE TO 8
FT. SEAS OF 4-7 FT PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN MIXED NORTHERLY AND
SOUTHERLY.
FOR THE FORECAST, LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CROSS EQUATORIAL, ROUGH SOUTHERLY SWELL
WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS S OF 06N AND W OF 100W BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR
8 FT IN FRESH N SWELL ALONG 30N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AT THE END
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS MAY FRESHEN IN THE NW WATERS
BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY.
LEWITSKY
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