097
AXPZ20 KNHC 092113
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 9 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 83W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO
15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS DISCUSSED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH
SECTION BELOW.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 103W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS EVIDENT FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 114W NORTH OF 05N, MOVING
WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 113W.
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 123W FROM 06N TO 21N, MOVING
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EVIDENT
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 120W AND 122W.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 08N95W TO 11N105W TO
10N115W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N115W TO 09N120W, AND FROM
08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
A RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE PASS CONFIRMED FRESH TO STRONG
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS HAVE
LIKELY DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE
SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE WEST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE, EXCEPT FOR FRESH NW WINDS FUNNELING OFF
PUNTA EUGENIA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, AND 1-3 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THU THROUGH FRI
NIGHT AS PRESSURE LOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTE
THROUGH THU NIGHT, LOCALLY STRONG TONIGHT JUST S OF PUNTA BAJA.
MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. MODERATE
SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE N OF 04N. S OF
04N, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT
RANGE, REACHING 7 FT BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE ACROSS THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH LATE FRI. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE,
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MODERATE SEAS IN S TO SW
SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE PERIOD,
EXCEPT BUILDING TO ROUGH S OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS MAY RETURN TO
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF 20N. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS. SOUTHERLY
SWELL OF 7 TO 8 FT IS EVIDENT SOUTH OF 05N AND WEST OF 110W.
ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE MAINLY 4 TO 6 FT ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS,
EXCEPT TO 7 FT SOUTH OF 15N AND WEST OF 135W.
FOR THE FORECAST, CROSS EQUATORIAL, ROUGH SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AND COVER THE WATERS S OF 06N AND W OF
100W THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH A REINFORCING SET THIS
WEEKEND. SEAS MAY BUILD TO NEAR 8 FT IN FRESH N SWELL ALONG 30N
BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AT THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL FRESHEN S OF THE ITCZ TODAY, PERSISTING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
CHRISTENSEN
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