795
WTPZ42 KNHC 310845
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 PM HST WED JUL 30 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE NHC HAS BEEN
TRACKING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
ARE 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB. A 0457 UTC ASCAT-B
PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 35 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME, THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA CONTAINING
CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE BECOMING COLDER AND MORE CIRCULAR ON INFRARED
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES. THE SYSTEM IS
UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 40 KT TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED
STRUCTURE SINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS.
GIL IS MOVING WESTWARD, OR 275/13 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GIL WILL STEER
THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. AS GIL
WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOW, IT SHOULD BEND MORE TO THE WEST BY DAY
4. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS.
GIL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE OVER THE
NEXT 36 H. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT
24 H WHILE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES. GIVEN THE CURRENT
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY FAST RECENT DEVELOPMENT TRENDS, IT
IS POSSIBLE GIL COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER, GIL IS FORECAST TO REACH COLDER WATER AND
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS BY HOUR 48 AS IT GAINS LATITUDE, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GIL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS CONVECTION AND
BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/0900Z 12.7N 115.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 13.4N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 119.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 15.7N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 17.1N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 18.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 20.1N 132.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 21.7N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 22.3N 144.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER HAGEN
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