916
WTPZ42 KNHC 311435
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 AM HST THU JUL 31 2025
GIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW STEADY BURSTS OF EMBEDDED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80 DEGREES
CELSIUS. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED THIS CYCLE AND RANGE BETWEEN 35 TO 46 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT, CLOSEST TO THE TAFB AND
UW-CIMSS DPRINT ESTIMATES.
THE STORM IS MOVING AT 280/12 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER GIL GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD MOTION. BY DAY 4, THE WEAKER, MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST.
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
GIL TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING. STATISTICAL INDICATORS EVEN SUGGEST
AN ABOVE AVERAGE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG-TO-RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS, THE PREDICTED PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN
RAISED TO 75 KT IN 36 H BASED ON THESE FACTORS AND AN OVERALL
INCREASE IN THE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. GIL IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REACH COOLER WATERS AND A DRY, STABLE AIRMASS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
WHICH WILL CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST NOW SHOWS GIL BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4,
WHEN GLOBAL MODEL SHOW THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL CONVECTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 13.2N 116.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 13.9N 118.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 15.0N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 17.8N 127.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 03/0000Z 19.2N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page