236
AXPZ20 KNHC 311628
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 31 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1600 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 116.2W AT 31/1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM IN THE NE
QUADRANT AND 150 NM SE QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS TO 14 FT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 09N TO 14N BETWEEN 115W AND
119W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
SURROUNDING THE STRONG CONVECTION, FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W
AND 124W. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY
AND THIS MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIL WILL MOVE TO 13.9N 118.1W THIS EVENING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.0N 120.9W FRI MORNING, 16.4N
124.0W FRI EVENING, 17.8N 127.4W SAT MORNING, 19.2N 130.8W SAT
EVENING, AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.3N 134.1W SUN
MORNING. GIL WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO 21.7N
140.3W EARLY MON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 87W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD THROUGH
HONDURAS, MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN
83W AND 93W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 99W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO, MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 15 TO 20 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 94W AND 103W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED, AND IS ALONG 131W.
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THIS WAVE AT THIS
TIME.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 13N108W THEN RESUMES
FROM 11N119W TO 09N139W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N139W TO BEYOND
10N140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS AND 6 TO 7 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER EASTERN
MEXICO. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED THROUGH THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, AND RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS LEADING TO
MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS OFFSHORE OF BAJA
NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE SE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N
116.2W AT 31/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIL WILL
MOVE TO 13.9N 118.1W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 15.0N 120.9W FRI MORNING, AND CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AWAY FROM THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE,
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL PULSE IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
THIS REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE WINDS AND MODERATE SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS LOW PRESSURE PREVAILS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN, AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AMERICA. GENERALLY MODERATE S WINDS ARE ONGOING SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, WITH MAINLY GENTLE WINDS NOTED TO THE NORTH. SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FT IN S SWELL DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WATERS, AS NOTED
ON RECENT ALTIMETER DATA.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG E TO NE GAP WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH E WINDS WILL EXTEND BEYOND THE PAPAGAYO REGION
THROUGH THE WATERS OFFSHORE OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA INTO
SAT. LOOKING AHEAD, FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF
ECUADOR AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON FRI. A LONG-PERIOD S TO SW SWELL
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS FRI INTO THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY SUN.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AS RIDGING DOMINATES THE REGION. ROUGH SEAS OF 8
TO 9 FT ARE OCCURRING 10N TO 25N WEST OF 135W. SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AWAY FROM GIL, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
AND MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.2N
116.2W AT 31/1500 UTC, MOVING WEST AT 12 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND THIS MOTION WITH SOME
ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIL WILL
MOVE TO 13.9N 118.1W THIS EVENING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
NEAR 15.0N 120.9W FRI MORNING, 16.4N 124.0W FRI EVENING, 17.8N
127.4W SAT MORNING, 19.2N 130.8W SAT EVENING, AND WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.3N 134.1W SUN MORNING. GIL WILL BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AS IT MOVES TO 21.7N 140.3W EARLY MON. LOOKING
AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ADAMS
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