848
WTPZ42 KNHC 312034
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 AM HST THU JUL 31 2025
GIL HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 1729 UTC SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) SUGGESTING THE
CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS CYCLE, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. WHILE THE SCATTEROMETER PASS ONLY
COVERED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STORM, IT DID PROVIDE INFORMATION
USED TO UPDATE SOME OF THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE RADII.
THE MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THIS GENERAL MOTION, WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED, SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK,
GIL SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE TRADE WINDS. ONLY SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.
GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY ABATE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THIS OCCURS,
THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW GIL TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BY SATURDAY, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM
AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A
STEADY-TO-RAPID WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. GIL IS STILL PREDICTED TO LOSE ITS ORGANIZED DEEP
CONVECTION AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE PREDICTIONS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS CYCLE AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/2100Z 13.5N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 15.6N 122.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 20.7N 135.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 22.6N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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