214
AXPZ20 KNHC 312235
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 31 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2130 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N 117.2W AT 31/2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 270
NM NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120
NM SW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 18 FT. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER, FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 119W. GIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIL WILL MOVE TO
14.4N 119.2W FRI MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.6N
122.2W FRI AFTERNOON, 17.0N 125.5W SAT MORNING, 18.4N 129.0W SAT
AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.7N 132.2W SUN
MORNING, AND 20.7N 135.4W SUN AFTERNOON. GIL WILL WEAKEN TO A
REMNANT LOW OVER 21.8N 141.2W MON AFTERNOON.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 80W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PANAMA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, MOVING WEST AROUND 10
KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS IN THE
CARIBBEAN, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE PACIFIC.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 89W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD THROUGH
EL SALVADOR AND EASTERN GUATEMALA, MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 15
TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 101.5W, FROM 03N TO 17N, MOVING TO
THE WEST AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 94W AND
107W.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 132W, FROM 02N TO 18N, MOVING WEST
AROUND 10 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N86W TO 13N108W, THEN RESUMES
FROM 11N119W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 121W AND 130W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, AS A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO AND A SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH HAS BEEN ANALYZED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED WIDESPREAD MODERATE NW WINDS
OCCURRING OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, WITH POCKETS OF FRESH
WINDS NOTED NORTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT PREVAIL
IN THESE WATERS, AS PER ALTIMETER SATELLITE DATA. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS
ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N
117.2W AT 31/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIL WILL MOVE TO 14.4N 119.2W FRI
MORNING, AND CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MEXICO
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH NEAR-
GALE FORCE AT TIMES FRI NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW
WINDS WILL OCCUR OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOWED FRESH TO STRONG NE
GAP WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO, AS LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL PANAMA AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FT ARE NOTED OVER THESE WATERS.
MODERATE TO FRESH E WINDS EXTEND BEYOND THE PAPAGAYO REGION TO
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. ELSEWHERE,
SCATTEROMETER AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND
4 TO 5 FT SEAS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI NIGHT, SUPPORTED BY LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH NE
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED IN THIS REGION THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE
WINDS WILL ALSO EXTEND THROUGH THE EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA
WATERS THROUGH SAT. ELSEWHERE, FRESH S WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OFFSHORE OF ECUADOR AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA ON FRI. A LONG-PERIOD S
TO SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
RECENT SCATTEROMETER SATELLITE DATA SHOW STRONG TO GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF GIL NORTH OF 05N, BETWEEN 113W AND
123W. WIDESPREAD FRESH SE TO SW WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE
OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH SURROUNDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED REGION. MODERATE SE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE SOUTH
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. TO THE NORTH, RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC, ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
32N137W. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH N TO NE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALTIMETER DATA
CONFIRM ROUGH SEAS FROM 12N TO 22N WEST OF 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 13.5N
117.2W AT 31/2100 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIL WILL MOVE TO 14.4N 119.2W FRI
MORNING, STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.6N 122.2W FRI
AFTERNOON, 17.0N 125.5W SAT MORNING, 18.4N 129.0W SAT AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.7N 132.2W SUN MORNING, AND
20.7N 135.4W SUN AFTERNOON. GIL WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
21.8N 141.2W MON AFTERNOON. LOOKING AHEAD, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTH OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ADAMS
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