035
WTPZ42 KNHC 010235
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 PM HST THU JUL 31 2025
GIL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH INCREASED EVIDENCE
OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM HAS BEEN
PARTIALLY EXPOSED, POSSIBLY DUE TO DRIER AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO
THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES, BUT A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED
ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. IN GENERAL, THE OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES.
THE STORM IS CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING, BUT AT A
FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF AROUND 13 KT. A FAIRLY STRONG
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF GIL
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL
ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CORRECTED
CONSENSUS, HCCA, PREDICTION. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES
OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO
DECREASE TO VERY LOW VALUES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MOIST DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF GIL ARE LIKELY TO DECREASE BELOW 25
DEGREES C IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE
OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE MARGINAL OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS THAT THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, AS IN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 14.2N 118.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 15.1N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 16.4N 123.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 17.9N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 19.4N 130.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 22.9N 142.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 23.9N 147.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER PASCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page