496
AXPZ20 KNHC 010306
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI AUG 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0245 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 01/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT...180 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 18N BETWEEN 112W AND 122W. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY FRIDAY EVENING, THEN START A WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS
WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 81W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PANAMA INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, MOVING WEST AROUND 10
TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 90W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING TO
THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 102W FROM 03N TO 17N, MOVING TO THE
WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N100W TO 10N106W.
IT RESUMES FROM 11N121W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN 83W
AND 91W, FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 91W AND 109W, AND FROM 05N TO
10N BETWEEN 125W AND 132W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN
THE 8-10 FT RANGE WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, IN MIXED
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM GIL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SAT, WITH MODERATE WINDS PULSING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 33N137W. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONDITIONS NEAR T.S. GIL, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, T.S. GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE
MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE
WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND
S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 20N AND W OF 132W. ELSEWHERE,
SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS NEAR 14.2N 118.5W AT 8
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. GIL WILL MOVE TO 15.1N 120.7W FRI MORNING,
STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.4N 123.9W FRI EVENING, 17.9N
127.3W SAT MORNING, 19.4N 130.8W SAT EVENING, WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.6N 133.9W SUN MORNING, AND 21.7N 137.1W
SUN EVENING. GIL WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEST OF THE AREA
NEAR 22.9N 142.4W LATE MON. OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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