538
AXPZ20 KNHC 010858
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI AUG 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 01/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120
NM SW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 20 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
118W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY TODAY, THEN START A WEAKENING TREND THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 82W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 91W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING TO
THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 102.5W FROM 03N TO 17N, MOVING TO
THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 07N102W TO 10N109W. IT
RESUMES FROM 10N123W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 15N BETWEEN
92W AND 109W, AND FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 122W AND 131W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE NOTED W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN
THE 8-10 FT RANGE WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, IN MIXED
SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM GIL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO, WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SAT, WITH MODERATE WINDS PULSING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N136W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS NEAR T.S. GIL, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, T.S. GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE
OVER THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 22N AND W OF 130W.
ELSEWHERE, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS NEAR 14.8N 120.1W AT 2
AM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. GIL WILL STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.8N
122.3W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 17.3N 125.6W SAT MORNING, 18.7N
129.0W SAT AFTERNOON, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 20.1N
132.2W SUN MORNING, 21.2N 135.3W SUN AFTERNOON, AND BECOME POST-
TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 22.1N 138.1W MON MORNING. GIL WILL WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW NEAR 23.0N 143.3W EARLY TUE. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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