102
WTPZ42 KNHC 011439
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 AM HST FRI AUG 01 2025
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE STORM CONTINUES TO PULSE, THOUGH IT IS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS. AN AMSR2 PASS
FROM 0927 UTC SHOWED A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND MUCH OF THE
CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH
GAVE GIL A T3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR
THIS CYCLE BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES. AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE STORM
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP UPDATE THE WIND RADII
ESTIMATES.
GIL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, THE WEAKENED STORM SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST
TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.
GIL ONLY HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF ABOUT 12 H TO STRENGTHEN.
THEREAFTER, THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BY DAY 2, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACCOMPANIED BY FALLING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES. THESE FACTORS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE, WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY 60 H. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL
EXPECTS GIL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, HOWEVER THIS
PREDICTION LIES ON THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 15.3N 121.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 16.1N 123.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 20.3N 133.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 04/0000Z 21.4N 136.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1200Z 22.1N 139.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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