291
AXPZ20 KNHC 011539
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI AUG 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.3N 121.5W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120 NM
SW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 25 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12.5N TO 16N BETWEEN
120W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE
INTENSITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING, THEN START A WEAKENING
TREND THIS WEEKEND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 80W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 94W-95W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 106W FROM 03N TO 17N, MOVING WEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N74W TO 07N98W TO 11N108W, THEN
RESUMES FROM 11.5N123W TO 06.5N135W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 09N
BETWEEN 88W AND 93.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 95W AND 101W, AND FROM 06N TO
11N BETWEEN 123W AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE GAP WINDS PREVAIL IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL FARTHER SOUTH TO
NEAR 10N FROM DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO OFFSHORE OF GUERRERO. SEAS
ARE 6 TO 8 DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 5 TO 7 FT FURTHER
OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD TO 20N110W. THE
RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TO
THE WATERS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS ARE
IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE SOUTH OF 21N AND WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO
ISLANDS, IN MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM GIL.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT
RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND
SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO
STRONG N WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE OVER AND DOWNSTREAM THE PAPAGAYO REGION
TO 90W, WITH GENTLE WINDS ELSEWHERE N OF 12N. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION WATERS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY SAT, WITH MODERATE WINDS PULSING
THEREAFTER. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH. LONG- PERIOD S TO SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTH AMERICAN WATERS THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO ROUGH SEAS
BETWEEN ECUADOR AND THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N136W.
OUTSIDE OF THE CONDITIONS NEAR T.S. GIL, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, T.S. GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS
OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF 120W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE
OVER THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 23N AND W OF 128W.
ELSEWHERE REMOVED FROM T.S. GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND
HIGHER FROM 06.5N TO 21N BETWEEN 112W AND 128W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.1N 123.9W
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, REACH 17.6N 127.1W SAT MORNING, THEN BEGIN
TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 19.0N 130.3W LATE SAT AFTERNOON
AS A TROPICAL STORM, NEAR 20.3N 133.6W SUN MORNING, NEAR 21.4N
136.4W LATE SUN AFTERNOON AS A 40 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW, THEN MOVE
TO 22.1N 139.0W MON MORNING, AND TO 23.0N 144.0W EARLY TUE AS A
REMNANT LOW. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY
TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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