736
WTPZ42 KNHC 012039
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 01 2025
GIL HAS SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 1710 UTC SHOWED AN AREA OF NEAR 50 KT
VECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. MORE RECENT
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE DATA SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION, WITH A
CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS GIL IS EXPERIENCING A DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE
STORM'S CORE. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA (ACCOUNTING FOR INSTRUMENT
UNDERSAMPLING) AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED. GIL SHOULD CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. AS THE STORM WEAKENS, A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AROUND
DAY 4. THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS CYCLE'S FORECAST.
GIL IS CURRENTLY CROSSING A COOLING GRADIENT OF THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND NEARING THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM. THEREFORE,
THE STORM'S CHANCES FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ARE QUICKLY
DIMINISHING. BEYOND 12 HOURS, GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT INCREASING
SHEAR AND A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE STORM
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS. GIL IS
STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF
WEEKEND.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECASTER BUCCI
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