788
AXPZ20 KNHC 012133
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI AUG 1 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 123.3W AT 2100 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM
NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...90 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 120
NM SW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 30 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN
121W AND 125W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 119W AND 125W. THE
LATEST FORECAST FOR GIL SHOWS IT CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND INTENSIFYING TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH TONIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING A WEAKENING TREND SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN, BEFORE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL SUN NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 82W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 96W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 106W-107W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09.5N75W TO 07.5N95W TO 10N111W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N125W TO 08N137W TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 02.5N TO 06N EAST OF 80.5W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 17.5N BETWEEN
92W AND 112W, AND FROM 05.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 125W AND 138W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. FRESH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY PREVAIL FARTHER SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 10N FROM DOWNWIND OF PAPAGAYO TO OFFSHORE
OF MICHOACAN. SEAS ARE 6 TO 8 DOWNSTREAM OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 5 TO
7 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. ELSEWHERE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
WELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND EXTENDS A RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD
TO OFFSHORE OF CABO CORRIENTES. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS PRODUCING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA OFFSHORE WATERS AND GENTLE NW TO N WINDS ELSEWHERE TO
THE WATERS NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE SOUTH OF 22N AND
WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, IN MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY
TROPICAL STORM GIL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO,
SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE
TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL CENTERED WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO
STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND
TO THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND DOWNWIND TO 90W. SEAS ARE 5 TO 8 FT
ACROSS THIS AREA. GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF 12N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
02N, AND ARE MODERATE TO FRESH FURTHER SOUTH TO THE GALAPAGOS
ISLANDS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE FROM 02N NORTHWARD AND 6 TO
7 FT IN SW SWELL SOUTHWARD OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY SAT, THEN CONTINUE TO PULSE
MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH MON. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. NEW SW SWELL WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING OFFSHORE
SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY
MON. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION MON THROUGH TUE,
BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER, AND A RETURN TO FRESH GAP WINDS
DOWNSTREAM OF PAPAGAYO BY TUE.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL.
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N134W.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, T.S.
GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
120W, BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF GIL. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W THAT ARE FEEDING INTO GIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE
OVER THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 23N AND W OF 125W.
ELSEWHERE REMOVED FROM T.S. GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE.
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND
HIGHER FROM 06N TO 22N BETWEEN 112W AND 128W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE NEAR 16.9N 125.7W
TONIGHT, REACH NEAR 18.4N 129.0W SAT AFTERNOON AS A TROPICAL
STORM, THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN, REACHING NEAR 19.7N 132.1W
SAT NIGHT, NEAR 20.8N 135.1W SUN AFTERNOON, THEN NEAR 21.6N
137.7W SUN NIGHT AS A 35 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW, REACHING 22.3N
140.0W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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