978
WTPZ42 KNHC 020248
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 PM HST FRI AUG 01 2025
GIL APPEARS TO HAVE RID ITSELF OF THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IT HAD
BEEN DEALING WITH EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST, AND AS A RESULT, SUBJECTIVE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.
SEVERAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE AT THAT LEVEL OR
HIGHER, SO GIL IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
GIL IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, NOW 295/17 KT.
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GIL TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A SLOWER FORWARD
MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BY MONDAY AS THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION,
LEANING TOWARD THE HCCA AND AI MODELS.
GIL ONLY HAS A SMALL WINDOW FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LIE AHEAD. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS, BUT
THEN FAST WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER DUE TO THE COLD WATERS.
IN FACT, MODEL-SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE GIL WILL LIKELY
LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS, AND THE NHC FORECAST
SHOWS IT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THAT TIME. BECAUSE OF GIL'S
FAST MOTION, THE DECREASE IN ITS WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LAG THE LOSS
OF CONVECTION, AND THE 45-KT FORECAST INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS IS
HIGHER THAN IS TYPICAL FOR WHEN AN EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. GIL IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY
DAY 5, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 125.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 17.6N 127.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 20.2N 134.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 21.1N 136.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 139.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0000Z 22.2N 142.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 22.8N 147.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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