296
AXPZ20 KNHC 020258
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT AUG 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.5N 125.1W AT
02/0300 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN
300 NM NE QUADRANT...270 NM SE QUADRANT...120 NM SW
QUADRANT...AND 150 NM NW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 30 FT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
14N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 122W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N
BETWEEN 118W AND 127W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL MOVING ON A
WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIL IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN, BEFORE
BECOMING POST- TROPICAL SUN NIGHT.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 83W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS OVERLAND IN NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 97W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 107W-108W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N104W TO 11N111W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N126W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
92W AND 98W, FROM 05N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 112W, AND FROM
05N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AS
WELL AS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE
SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, IN MIXED
SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE GIL. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE GIL, CENTERED WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA
WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS
WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND TO THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND DOWNWIND TO 90W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE NORTH OF 02N AND 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL
SOUTH OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY SAT, THEN PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
MON. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. NEW SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT BY SAT
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE GIL.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, HURRICANE
GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
120W, BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF GIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THAT
ARE FEEDING INTO GIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 23N AND W OF 125W. ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND HIGHER FROM 06N TO
22N BETWEEN 114W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE GIL WILL MOVE TO 17.6N 127.6W SAT
MORNING, 19.0N 130.9W SAT EVENING, WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
NEAR 20.2N 134.1W SUN MORNING, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO
21.1N 136.9W SUN EVENING, 21.8N 139.6W MON MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO
A REMNANT LOW NEAR 22.2N 142.0W MON EVENING. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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