063
WTPZ42 KNHC 020834
TCDEP2
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 01 2025
GIL HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS MOSTLY ERODED, LIKELY
DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND THE SYSTEM NOW MOVING OVER MARGINAL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES C. HOWEVER, THE CYCLONE
STILL DISPLAYS IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND ITS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN STEADY AT 4.0/65 KT, CONSISTENT
WITH OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 50 TO 70 KT. BASED
ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/17 KT, STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS
THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
GIL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS IT
CONTINUES MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS
INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE MID-LEVEL AIR. THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CYCLONE’S
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTS THAT GIL WILL LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME
POST-TROPICAL BY SUNDAY, OR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5, IN LINE WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 17.4N 126.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 18.4N 129.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 19.9N 132.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 21.1N 135.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 04/1800Z 22.5N 140.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/0600Z 22.9N 142.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0600Z 23.5N 147.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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