558
AXPZ20 KNHC 020845
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT AUG 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0840 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
HURRICANE GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 02/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 991 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 270 NM
NE QUADRANT...240 NM SE QUADRANT...150 NM SW QUADRANT...AND 150
NM NW QUADRANT WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 32 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN
125W AND 128W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 118W AND 130W.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL MOVING ON A WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND
TODAY, BEFORE BECOMING POST- TROPICAL SUN.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 84W, FROM 03N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS OVERLAND FROM COSTA RICA
TO NICARAGUA.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 98W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 108W-109W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N85W TO 09N109W TO 12N113W,
THEN RESUMES FROM 12N128W TO BEYOND 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 10N BETWEEN
95W AND 101W, AND FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 102W AND 113W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN
130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG TO NEAR GALE N GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTH OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE SOUTH OF 22N AND WEST OF THE
REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS, IN MIXED SWELL GENERATED BY HURRICANE GIL.
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7
FT RANGE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE GIL, CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
MEXICO OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM GIL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY
SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND TO THE GULF OF FONSECA, AND DOWNWIND TO 90W.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS
ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE NORTH OF 02N AND 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL
SOUTH OF 02N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL DIMINISH BY MIDDAY, THEN PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH
MON. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. NEW SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE GIL.
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N134W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, HURRICANE
GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N AND W OF
120W, BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF GIL. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT FOR FRESH TO
LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W THAT
ARE FEEDING INTO GIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER THE
WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 25N AND W OF 130W. ELSEWHERE
OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT AND HIGHER FROM 06N TO
23N BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.
FOR THE FORECAST, HURRICANE GIL IS NEAR 17.4N 126.8W AT 2 AM
PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 991 MB. GIL WILL MOVE TO 18.4N 129.3W THIS AFTERNOON,
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 19.9N 132.3W SUN MORNING, BECOME
POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 21.1N 135.2W SUN AFTERNOON, 22.0N
138.0W MON MORNING, 22.5N 140.5W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page