631
WTPZ42 KNHC 021435
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 AM HST SAT AUG 02 2025
GIL IS WEAKENING AS THE CENTER IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 25C. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS DECREASING AND BECOMING ASYMMETRIC, WITH LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW TRENDING DOWNWARD, AND BASED ON THIS
GIL IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 60-KT WINDS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT, A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
GIL SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND
INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE LATEST SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE SHOULD STOP PRODUCING
CONVECTION AT AROUND 36 H, AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN
INDICATES POST-TROPICAL STATUS AT THAT TIME. WHILE THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 H,
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING SHOULD KEEP THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WEAKENING. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING DISSIPATION BETWEEN 96-120 H, WHICH IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/1500Z 18.3N 128.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.6N 133.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.6N 136.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 05/0000Z 22.7N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z 23.0N 144.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1200Z 23.8N 149.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BEVEN
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