628
AXPZ20 KNHC 021606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT AUG 2 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
NEWLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N
128.6W AT 1500 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS NOW 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE
FOUND WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT...210 NM SE QUADRANT...AND 150
NM W SEMICIRCLE...WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 30 FT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM
ACROSS THE SW SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 122W AND
130W. MODERATE-SIZED SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY
BEFORE FADING SUN MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL MOVING ON
A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIL HAS BEGUN A
WEAKENING TREND TODAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL
SUN EVENING.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED NEAR 86W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD,
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION
BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 99W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 108W-109W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL
SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A HIGH CHANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N76W TO 07.5N81W TO 10.5N90W
TO 08N100W TO 14N115W, THEN RESUMES FROM 11.5N130W TO 07.5N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 03N AND
EAST OF 80W, FROM 06.5N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 89W, FROM 06N TO
15N BETWEEN 92W AND 99W, AND FROM 06N TO 18N BETWEEN 99W AND 116W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N
TO 09.5N BETWEEN 133W AND 137W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
STRONG N GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-9 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO 14N, BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE COAST OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OAXACA. ELSEWHERE, HIGH
PRESSURE WEST OF THE AREA IS YIELDING GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS
WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BECOMING GENTLE N TO NE
WINDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS. SEAS THERE ARE 6
TO 7 FT IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES
AND PUERTO ANGEL, AS WELL AS INSIDE THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN,
AND JUST WEST OF LAS TRES MARIAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE.
IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, SLIGHT SEAS ARE NOTED, EXCEPT 5 TO 6
FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF, AS SWELL FROM GIL PREVAILS.
FOR THE FORECAST, NEWLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM GIL, CENTERED
WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEKEND, AS
IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG N
GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH
NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, THEN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EARLY SUN AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE
PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 90W. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. HOWEVER, A VERY
LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS BLOWN UP ALONG THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA SOUTH OF 07N, AND IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD. A FEW COASTAL OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF
PANAMA ARE REPORTING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO GALE-FORCE AND
HIGHER. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE
NORTH OF 03N AND 6 TO 8 FT IN SW SWELL SOUTH OF 03N.
FOR THE FORECAST, FRESH GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY, THEN PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH MON.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. NEW SW SWELL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS THIS WEEKEND, BUILDING OFFSHORE SEAS TO 6 TO 8 FT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON. YET ANOTHER
PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TUE
THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
HURRICANE GIL.
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, TROPICAL
STORM GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 122W, BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF GIL. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH, EXCEPT FOR
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG S WINDS SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 120W AND
130W THAT ARE FEEDING INTO GIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE OVER
THE WATERS N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 26N AND W OF 120W, EXCEPT
AS NOTED NEAR GIL. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7
FT RANGE. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 TO 12
FT AND HIGHER FROM 07N TO 24N BETWEEN 118W AND 131W.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT
17 KT, AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MON. GIL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
TO NEAR 19.3N 131.0W THIS EVENING, REACH NEAR 20.6N 133.8W SUN
MORNING, BECOME A 40 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW NEAR 21.6N 136.6W SUN
EVENING, REACH NEAR 22.3N 139.2W MON MORNING, THEN EXIT TO THE
WEST OF 140W AS A REMNANT LOW MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM WELL SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, LIKELY IN THE
VICINITY OF 120W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A
HIGH CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THEREAFTER,
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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