886
WTPZ42 KNHC 022037
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 02 2025
GIL IS HOLDING STEADY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAVERSES COOL WATERS.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION REMAINS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION LARGELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS A RECENT
ASCAT PASS, INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. BASED
ON THIS DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF GIL REMAINS AT 60 KT.
THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
295/17 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER, AS GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS INCREASINGLY STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED.
THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST
AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CONSENSUS AIDS.
GIL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LARGELY DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 36 H, AT WHICH TIME THE
CYCLONE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL. AFTER ABOUT 48 H, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DETRIMENTAL, WITH
SHEAR INCREASING AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE DECREASING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER 96 H. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
BOTH THE PRIOR FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 19.0N 130.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 20.0N 132.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.0N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 138.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 04/1800Z 22.3N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 23.0N 146.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 23.6N 151.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER HOGSETT
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