402
WTPZ42 KNHC 030239
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
500 PM HST SAT AUG 02 2025
GIL IS NOW OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 24 DEGREES CELSIUS, AND ITS DEEP
CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION AND AREAL COVERAGE.
BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5/3.5 FROM
SAB, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF GIL WILL BE GETTING COLDER BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO, AND
THE STORM WILL BE RUNNING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN 24-48 HOURS. GIL IS LIKELY TO LOSE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND THUS BECOME POST-TROPICAL, IN ABOUT 24
HOURS, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 295/18
KT. THE RIDGE NORTH OF GIL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS THE
REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LEANING TOWARD
THE LATEST HCCA AND AI GUIDANCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4
(WEDNESDAY) NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0300Z 19.5N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.1N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1200Z 21.7N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0000Z 22.0N 142.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1200Z 22.2N 145.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 22.6N 148.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BERG
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