780
AXPZ20 KNHC 030256
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0250 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 132.0W AT 03/0300 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 270 NM
NE QUADRANT, 240 NM SE QUADRANT, 180 NM SW QUADRANT, AND 150 NM
NW QUADRANT, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 28 FT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN
130W AND 133W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM 17N TO 28N BETWEEN 127W AND 136W. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL CONTINUING TO MOVE ON A WEST- NORTHWEST
TRACK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIL IS LIKELY TO LOSE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, AND THUS BECOME POST-TROPICAL, IN ABOUT 24 HOURS,
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP90):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 100W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 113W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. BROAD LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N113W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N108W TO 11N113W TO
10N118W, THEN RESUMES FROM 12N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 03N
AND EAST OF 83W, FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 86W AND 100W, FROM 06N
TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 119W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W
AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT, PREVAIL ACROSS
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS, AS WELL AS IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, AND 2-4 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS, AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE NORTH OF 01N AND 6 TO 8 FT IN
SW SWELL SOUTH OF 01N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL PULSE
MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH MON, THEN WILL WEAKEN THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG
LATE TUE THROUGH WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON.
ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL AND EP90. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS
PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER FROM 08N TO 27N BETWEEN 121W
AND 135W.
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, TROPICAL
STORM GIL, AND LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER THE WATERS N OF 10N
AND W OF 125W, BEYOND THE IMMEDIATE CIRCULATION OF GIL. MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE
IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL IS NEAR 19.5N 132.0W AT 8
PM PDT, AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 18 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT, AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 997 MB. GIL WILL MOVE TO 20.3N 134.4W SUN MORNING,
BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 21.1N 137.4W SUN EVENING, WEAKEN
TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 21.7N 140.2W MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE,
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page