863
WTPZ42 KNHC 030832
TCDEP2
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072025
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 02 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS GIL CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A TIMELY ASCAT PASS REVEALED PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 45 KT IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB RANGE FROM 3.0/45 KT TO 3.5/55 KT, WHICH ARE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. BASED ON A BLEND
OF THESE DATA AND THE ASCAT PASS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50
KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/16 KT. GIL IS BEING STEERED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED BY MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
CONTINUED MOVEMENT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS, INTRUSION OF
DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, AND THE ONSET OF INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ACCELERATE GIL’S WEAKENING TREND. SIMULATED SATELLITE
IMAGERY FROM GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT GIL WILL LOSE
ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATE SUNDAY, OR IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN
AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW DAYS, LIKELY BY DAY 4, AS IT OPENS INTO
A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 03/0900Z 20.1N 133.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.8N 136.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.4N 139.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 04/1800Z 21.8N 141.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/0600Z 22.0N 144.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 05/1800Z 22.2N 147.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 22.5N 149.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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