572
AXPZ20 KNHC 030845
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0835 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 133.7W AT 03/0900 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT, 240 NM SE QUADRANT, 180 NM SW QUADRANT, AND 150 NM
NW QUADRANT, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 26 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 132W
AND 134W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE FROM
17N TO 27N BETWEEN 130W AND 137W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL
CONTINUING ON A WEST- NORTHWEST TRACK TODAY. GIL IS LIKELY TO
LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND THUS BECOME POST- TROPICAL WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP90):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. IN ANTICIPATION OF TC GENESIS, A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 101W, FROM 05N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 114W FROM 05N TO 18N, MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11.5N114W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 10N106W TO 11.5N114W
TO 10N118W, THEN RESUMES FROM 13N131W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF 03N AND
EAST OF 85W, FROM 05N TO 12N BETWEEN 87W AND 103W, FROM 06N TO
18N BETWEEN 103W AND 120W, AND FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 130W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, PREVAIL
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. LIGHT TO GENTLE
WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
OFF MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS
AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
FRESH TO STRONG N GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SUN MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. IN THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SUN, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS, AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND TO THE GULF OF FONSECA. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE NORTH OF 01N AND 6 TO 8 FT IN
SW SWELL SOUTH OF 01N.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH MON, THEN WILL WEAKEN MIDWEEK.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG LATE TUE
THROUGH WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SW MOVING
THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MON. ANOTHER
PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TUE
THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL AND A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH EP90.
SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER
FROM 09N TO 26N BETWEEN 123W AND 140W.
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. OUTSIDE
OF GIL, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL N OF 15N AND W OF 125W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND EP90. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT
RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL WILL MOVE TO 20.8N 136.1W
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOME POST-TROPICAL AND MOVE TO 21.4N 139.1W MON
MORNING, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 21.8N 141.8W MON AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL WEST- SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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