357
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TROPICAL STORM GIL IS CENTERED NEAR 20.6N 135.7W AT 1500 UTC,
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM
NE QUADRANT, 240 NM SE QUADRANT, 150 NM SW QUADRANT, AND 180 NM
NW QUADRANT, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 24 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 20.5N TO 24N BETWEEN 128W AND 137W.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE
FROM 12.5N TO 19N BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM
GIL HAD MOVED NORTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WATERS AND IS
GRADUALLY FADING ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS THIS MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GIL CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
TODAY. GIL IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ORGANIZED CONVECTION, AND THUS IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS,
WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP90):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR 115W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
IN ANTICIPATION OF TC GENESIS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THIS SYSTEM, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE MON NIGHT.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE BASIN THIS MORNING,
LOCATED ALONG 79W-80W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, FROM 03N
NORTHWARD ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN
WATERS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 102W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 114W-115W FROM 05N TO 17N, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 12N114.5W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11.5N74W TO 09.5N82W TO LOW PRES
1009 MB NEAR 12N114.5W TO 16N129W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N138W
TO BEYOND 09.5N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH
OF 03N AND EAST OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W, FROM 11N TO 18N
BETWEEN 92W AND 104W, AND FROM 09N TO 16.5N BETWEEN 110W AND
120W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N TO 14N
BETWEEN 95W AND 110W, AND FROM 07N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 131W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG N GAP WINDS, AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT, CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 14N.
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO W WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CABO CORRIENTES AND PUERTO ANGEL, WHERE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE NW OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS
ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS FROM THERE SOUTHWARD TO THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS.
OUTSIDE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-7 FT ACROSS
THE BAJA WATERS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL, POSSIBLY STILL
REACHING 8 FT WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OFF MEXICO, SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA, GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH SWELL FROM GIL PRODUCING SEAS
OF 4-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
GIL WILL FADE ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FRESH TO
STRONG N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING, THEN BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH TUE. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS, AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, AND
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 89W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE
WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 05N, WITH MODERATE TO
FRESH SW WINDS S OF 05N AND ARE FEEDING INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND 85W. SEAS
ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGH MON, THEN WILL WEAKEN MIDWEEK.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUE, THEN BECOME FRESH TO STRONG LATE TUE
THROUGH WED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SW SWELL
MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
MON. ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
TROPICAL STORM GIL AND A GALE WARNING MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
EP90. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND
HIGHER FROM 08N TO 27N BETWEEN 124W AND 140W.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. OUTSIDE
OF GIL, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF 12N AND W OF 123W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND EP90 S OF 18N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF GIL,
SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED S TO SW SWELL AND EASTERLY
SWELL FROM GIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL STORM GIL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
LOSE CONVECTION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO 21.2N 138W THIS
EVENING AS A 35 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW, THEN EXIT THE AREA NEAR TO
21.7N 141W MON MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
12N114.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER
OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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