045
AXPZ20 KNHC 032131
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN AUG 3 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL WAS CENTERED NEAR 20.5N 136.7W AT 1800
UTC, MOVING WEST AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1005 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55
KT, REQUIRING A GALE WARNING. SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FT ARE FOUND
WITHIN 240 NM NE QUADRANT, 150 NM SE QUADRANT, 120 NM SW
QUADRANT, AND 180 NM NW QUADRANT, WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 22 FT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 20.5N TO 24N BETWEEN
128W AND 137W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 150 TO
360 NM FROM THE CENTER BETWEEN 131W AND 140W. SOUTHERLY SWELL
FROM GIL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FADING ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, CROSSING 140W
AROUND MIDNIGHT, WHILE WINDS DIMINISH SLOWLY TO JUST BELOW GALE-
FORCE.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LAST GIL
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV
FOR MORE DETAILS.
GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP90):
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 12N115W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IN ANTICIPATION OF TC GENESIS, A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE MON MORNING.
..TROPICAL WAVES
A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE BASIN ALONG 81W,
MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, E OF 86W AND FROM 03.5N NORTHWARD ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 103W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 115W FROM 05N TO 17N, MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 12N115W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE THIS WEEKEND OR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11.5N73.5W TO 09N82W TO LOW PRES
1009 MB NEAR 12N11W TO 14N128W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11.5N137W
TO BEYOND 11N140W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NORTH OF
03.5N AND EAST OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS NOTED FROM 05.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 86W AND 104W, FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 105W AND 111W, AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 113W AND
121W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 128W AND 132W, AND FROM 07N TO 11.5N BETWEEN 133W AND
140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
FRESH N GAP WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-7 FT CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD TO 13N. GENTLE TO LOCALLY
MODERATE NW TO W WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST BETWEEN
PUERTO ANGEL AND WESTERN MICHOACAN, WHERE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE, AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. HIGH PRESSURE WELL NW OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING MODERATE NW WINDS ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS
N OF CABO SAN LAZARO, AND GENTLE WINDS FROM THERE SOUTHWARD TO
THE REVILLAGIGEDO ISLANDS AND CABO CORRIENTES. OUTSIDE OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC, SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT ACROSS THE BAJA
WATERS IN SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL, POSSIBLY STILL REACHING 8 FT
WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA NORTE. ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO, SEAS ARE 4 TO 5 FT IN SW SWELL. IN THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND SLIGHT TO LOCALLY
MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH SWELL FROM GIL PRODUCING SEAS OF 4-5
FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE GIL WILL FADE ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU. FRESH N GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC WILL PULSE TO FRESH AGAIN TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH MON,
BECOMING VARIABLE THROUGH TUE. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, AND GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA WED
AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND
COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION
AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 89W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE
FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 06N, WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SW
WINDS S OF 06N AND ARE FEEDING INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA, PANAMAS AND 86W.
SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN SW
SWELL, EXCEPT TO 8 FT IN THE FRESH WINDS SOUTH OF THE AZUERO
PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TONIGHT THROUGH MON, THEN WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON
NIGHT. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS OFF THE PAPAGAYO REGION
WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG LATE TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
TROPICAL WAVE, AND SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH
TUE, AND WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
10N. SW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH MON. ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL AND A GALE WARNING TONIGHT ASSOCIATED
WITH EP90. SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT
AND HIGHER FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 127W AND 140W. PEAK SEAS TO 22
FT AND WINDS 35-45 KT CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N136W. OUTSIDE
OF GIL, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF 12N AND W OF 125W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND EP90 S OF 18N.
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF GIL,
SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED S TO SW SWELL AND EASTERLY
SWELL FROM GIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, GALE-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE WITHIN 120 NM ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN VERY SLOWLY
TONIGHT, CROSSING 140W AROUND MIDNIGHT, WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE-FORCE. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY
LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MON MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT,
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
STRIPLING
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