714
AXPZ20 KNHC 040226
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0220 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
GALE WARNING WITH REMNANT LOW OF GIL:
THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL WAS CENTERED NEAR 21N138W AT 0000 UTC.
GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW,
WHERE SEAS ARE PEAKING NEAR 19 FT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD, CROSSING 140W TONIGHT, WHILE WINDS DIMINISH
SLOWLY TO JUST BELOW GALE- FORCE. CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH GIL
WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA, WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING BELOW
HIGH SEAS CRITERIA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GALE WARNING IN THE CENTRAL EAST PACIFIC (EP90):
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. IN ANTICIPATION OF TC GENESIS, A GALE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO
COMMENCE MON.
FOR MORE ON THESE SYSTEMS, PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS
FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ENTERING THE BASIN
NEAR 82W, MOVING WEST AT 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
CONTINUES AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, E OF 87W AND FROM 03.5N NORTHWARD
ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK IN
ASSOCIATION TO THIS WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 104W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 116.5W FROM 05N TO 17N, MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 12.5N116.5W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 08N89W TO 12.5N116.5W
TO 11N124W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N124W TO 13N136W TO BEYOND
12N140W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 05N TO 12N E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 101W AND
110W, FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 123W, AND FROM 07N TO 13N
BETWEEN 133W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE NW TO W WINDS PREVAIL WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE COAST BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. MODERATE
NW WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS N OF CABO SAN LAZARO.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL, WITH SWELL FROM GIL
PRODUCING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTRANCE.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE SOUTHERLY SWELL FROM GIL WILL FADE
ACROSS THE BAJA NORTE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODERATE NW
WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THU. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO BY MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM LATER THIS WEEK AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH, AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS OF CHIAPAS AND OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT
AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT
THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO
REGION AND EXTEND OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS
ARE FOUND S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO 01N, WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF
01N. SEAS ACROSS THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN
SW SWELL, EXCEPT TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, GAP WINDS ACROSS THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL
PULSE TO FRESH TONIGHT, THEN WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON NIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH EARLY TUE. WINDS OFF THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL BECOME
FRESH TO STRONG LATE TUE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE, AND
SHIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND
GUATEMALA TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE, AND WILL
SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N. SW SWELL MOVING
THROUGH THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MON.
ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
A GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL AND AN
UPCOMING GALE WARNING ASSOCIATED WITH EP90. SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH GIL IS PRODUCING SEAS OF 8 FT AND HIGHER FROM 10N TO 28N
BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. PEAK SEAS TO 19 FT AND WINDS TO 35 KT
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W. OUTSIDE
OF GIL, MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF 20N AND W OF 125W.
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED AROUND EP90. GENTLE TO
MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF GIL, SEAS ARE IN
THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN MIXED S TO SW SWELL AND EASTERLY SWELL FROM
GIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED WELL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MON IN ANTICIPATION OF
THIS. ANOTHER AREA OF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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