983
WTNT44 KNHC 040843
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEXTER DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025
500 AM AST MON AUG 04 2025
DEXTER REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED PROXY-VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY, A FUNCTION OF MODERATE SHEAR. WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OR SATELLITE ESTIMATES
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 40 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KT, WITH
DEXTER STEERED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO FLOW FROM THAT RIDGE, WITH FEWER
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS TO NOTE. GENERALLY THE MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER
THAN THE LAST CYCLE, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND, THOUGH
IS STILL ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
THE MODERATE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING DEXTER IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO OVER 20 KT BY LATE TODAY, WITH INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING TO
THE SHORT TERM, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS WOULD NORMALLY CAUSE WEAKENING, THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF A
FAVORABLE TROUGH INTERACTION CAUSING NON-TROPICAL INTENSIFICATION,
AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF MODEL. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS,
HOWEVER, DO NOT SHOW THE TROUGH PHASING WITH DEXTER, THOUGH THEY ARE
SHOWING A STRONGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE HIGHER AT 72-96H THAN THE LAST FORECAST, AND IS NOW BELOW THE
LONG-RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS. DEXTER'S EXTRATROPICAL DISPOSITION
SHOULD BE CONSIDERED FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 34.6N 68.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 35.5N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 36.8N 64.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 37.8N 62.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 38.6N 61.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 39.1N 58.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 07/0600Z 39.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 08/0600Z 41.5N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
FORECASTER BLAKE
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