193
WTPZ43 KNHC 040850
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
1100 PM HST SUN AUG 03 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT
PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS NEAR 30 KT.
GIVEN THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION, ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHT-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT, BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE ASCAT PASS AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/13 KT, ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD, STEERING THE SYSTEM GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD
MOTION IS POSSIBLE BY DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND
IS STEERED WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE UPDATED TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH A MOIST, LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY
AND COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 36 AND 60 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES C AND BEGINS TO
ENTRAIN DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORTS THIS
SCENARIO, SHOWING A REDUCTION IN DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN. THE
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH 60 HOURS,
THEN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/0900Z 13.7N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.4N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 15.4N 122.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 16.4N 124.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 17.4N 127.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 06/1800Z 18.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 19.8N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 21.2N 145.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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