255
AXPZ20 KNHC 040909
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON AUG 4 2025
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
03.4S TO 30N, EAST OF 120W INCLUDING THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AND
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 30N, BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS,
RADAR, AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0850 UTC.
..SPECIAL FEATURES
TD 8-E:
NEWLY DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS CENTERED NEAR
13.7N 118.2W AT 04/0900 UTC, MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY
PEAKING NEAR 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 07N TO 19N
BETWEEN 116W AND 124W. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING
ON WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY TODAY, AND REACH
JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TUE NIGHT BEFORE STARTING A
WEAKENING TREND.
PLEASE READ THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT WEBSITE -
HTTPS://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TEXT/MIAHSFEP2.SHTML AND THE LATEST
EIGHT-E NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY AND PUBLIC ADVISORY AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE DETAILS.
..TROPICAL WAVES
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 85W N OF 03N, MOVING WEST AT
10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS NEAR 105W, FROM 06N NORTHWARD, MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NEARBY CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ SECTION BELOW.
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE TAFB
WAS ANALYZING HAS DEVELOPED INTO TD 8-E. WITH TD 8-E FORMING,
THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE MAP.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N84W TO 09N90W TO 12N109W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 11N125W TO 13N136W TO BEYOND 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
05N TO 10N E OF 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM
08N TO 15N BETWEEN 130W AND 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
MODERATE NW WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BAJA WATERS N OF CABO SAN
LAZARO. GENTLE TO LOCALLY MODERATE WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC AS WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF SW MEXICO.
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OFF
MEXICO. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, MODERATE SE TO S WINDS AND
SLIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SEAS PREVAIL.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE NW WINDS OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THROUGH THU. IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER THIS WEEK
WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH, AND GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STRONG ACROSS THE WATERS OF
CHIAPAS AND OAXACA WED AND WED NIGHT AND SHIFT WESTWARD TO
GUERRERO, MICHOACAN AND COLIMA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ENHANCING GAP
WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND SW MONSOON FLOW SOUTH OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF ENHANCED GAP WINDS AND
SW MONSOON FLOW HAS INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO
ACTIVE CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHEASTERLY GAP WINDS ARE OVER THE PAPAGAYO REGION AND EXTEND
OFFSHORE TO NEAR 88W. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE FOUND S OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH TO 01N, WITH GENTLE WINDS S OF 01N. SEAS ACROSS
THE REGION ARE GENERALLY IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE IN SW SWELL, EXCEPT
TO 8 FT SOUTH OF THE AZUERO PENINSULA.
FOR THE FORECAST, MODERATE TO FRESH GAP WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE PAPAGAYO REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE. WINDS OFF
THE PAPAGAYO REGION WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TUE, AND SHIFT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH THROUGH TUE, AND WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 10N. SW SWELL MOVING THROUGH THE REGIONAL
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE TODAY. ANOTHER PULSE OF SW SWELL WILL RAISE
SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TUE THROUGH WED.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA
PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR INFORMATION ON
NEWLY DEVELOPED TD 8-E.
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL HAVE DIMINISHED
BELOW GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N139.5W. STRONG TO
NEAR- GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, WHERE SEAS
ARE PEAKING NEAR 19 FT. ELSEWHERE, A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N
OF THE AREA NEAR 33N135W. OUTSIDE OF THE GIL REMNANTS AND TD 8-E,
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS PREVAIL N OF 20N AND W OF 132W. GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. OUTSIDE OF THE GIL
REMNANTS AND TD 8-E, SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE.
FOR THE FORECAST, TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WILL STRENGTHEN TO
A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 14.4N 119.7W THIS AFTERNOON, MOVE TO 15.4N
122.1W TUE MORNING, 16.4N 124.6W TUE AFTERNOON, 17.4N 127.2W WED
MORNING, 18.2N 129.9W WED AFTERNOON, AND 18.8N 132.6W THU
MORNING. EIGHT-E WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY AS IT MOVES TO
NEAR 19.8N 138.8W EARLY FRI. THE REMNANT LOW OF GIL WILL
CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK, CROSSING 140W EARLY TODAY.
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH GIL WILL MOVE WEST OF THE AREA, WITH
WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING BELOW HIGH SEAS CRITERIA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
THIS WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE OUTER OFFSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
MEXICO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48
HOURS, AND A MEDIUM CHANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AL
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