268
WTPZ43 KNHC 041432
TCDEP3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082025
500 AM HST MON AUG 04 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL
STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS, WITH A FEW
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEPER CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT APPRECIABLY
IMPROVED, AND THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.0/30 KT. GIVEN THESE
DATA AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST, OR 295/13 KT,
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, STEERING
THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE BY DAY 5 AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN AND RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE FAR NORTH OF HAWAII. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH A MOIST, LOW-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT
AND COULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 36 AND 60 HOURS. AFTER
THAT TIME, A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES C AND BEGINS TO
ENTRAIN DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
DESPITE THESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
MAINTAINS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE
120-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH
MIDWEEK, THEN MORE GRADUALLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS
THEREAFTER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 14.2N 119.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 14.9N 121.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 15.9N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 17.7N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 18.4N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 20.0N 141.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
FORECASTER GIBBS (CPHC)
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